15 million deaths, economic disaster due to Coronavirus : Study Predicts
If the study is to be believed in the most disastrous scenario, the death toll could reach a staggering 68million and some countries' economies would shrink by as much as eight per cent in a global meltdown.
Warning is also raised in the study that ‘even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run’.
An estimated loss of millions of people is predicted each for China and India.While the United States could expect to see 230,000 fatalties, 64000 are expected to die in Britain which has only seen one death so far. The study also predicted 79,000 deaths in Germany and 60,000 in France.
If the study research is to be believed South Korea and Italy, which have suffered particularly widespread outbreaks in recent weeks, would also be bracing for tens of thousands of deaths.
The study concluded that Britain’s GDP would drop by around 1.5 per cent, with America’s economy shrinking by 2.0 per cent and the global economy would take a $2.3 trillion hit.Russia’s fatality count would also be approaching a million, according to the study.
The probability of any of the study's projected outcomes are ‘highly uncertain’.
The current global death toll is 3,383 out of 98,703 confirmed cases. Though most of the cases are from China, but the virus has been spreading faster in other hotspots such as Italy, Iran and South Korea in recent weeks.
One of the impacts of the Coronavirus outbreak in India is disruption of supply chains - automakers and manufacturers of electronic goods in India are paying exorbitant rates to fly down spares and components from China and South Korea on chartered flights.Buffer stocks at their facilities have run out and usual transportation modes from the region remain clogged. Many global airlines have all but stopped operating to these countries, making scheduled air transportation of cargo impossible, with chartering the only option.
Automakers import components like turbochargers and various electronics components including sensors from China and South Korea.While many Chinese suppliers have now resumed production, it is still not at full capacity- normalcy is still not in sight. The "tough call" of airlifting some components in the short run can potentially pass on increased cost on to consumers.
India sees this an opportunity - an opportunity to increase production capacity, expand trade, follow an export-driven model and give a thrust to the ‘Make in India’ campaign - its also an opportunity to explore other markets to procure raw material and decrease dependence on Chinese imports.Moreover, it is expected that the virus outbreak would pave the way for more foreign investments in emerging countries like India, as the world looks to reduce dependence on China.
There is a fear that the world’s over-reliance on China will continue to hurt global growth until the virus is contained. And a sharp slowdown in global growth could offset some of the benefits to Indian companies, too.
While efforts to limit the spread of Coronavirus are ongoing, attentions are also focused on measures to reduce the risk of future outbreaks.
The spotlight is falling on food supply chain, health and safety and this could drive new demand for flexible packaging in China. more
Warning is also raised in the study that ‘even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run’.
An estimated loss of millions of people is predicted each for China and India.While the United States could expect to see 230,000 fatalties, 64000 are expected to die in Britain which has only seen one death so far. The study also predicted 79,000 deaths in Germany and 60,000 in France.
If the study research is to be believed South Korea and Italy, which have suffered particularly widespread outbreaks in recent weeks, would also be bracing for tens of thousands of deaths.
The study concluded that Britain’s GDP would drop by around 1.5 per cent, with America’s economy shrinking by 2.0 per cent and the global economy would take a $2.3 trillion hit.Russia’s fatality count would also be approaching a million, according to the study.
The probability of any of the study's projected outcomes are ‘highly uncertain’.
The current global death toll is 3,383 out of 98,703 confirmed cases. Though most of the cases are from China, but the virus has been spreading faster in other hotspots such as Italy, Iran and South Korea in recent weeks.
One of the impacts of the Coronavirus outbreak in India is disruption of supply chains - automakers and manufacturers of electronic goods in India are paying exorbitant rates to fly down spares and components from China and South Korea on chartered flights.Buffer stocks at their facilities have run out and usual transportation modes from the region remain clogged. Many global airlines have all but stopped operating to these countries, making scheduled air transportation of cargo impossible, with chartering the only option.
Automakers import components like turbochargers and various electronics components including sensors from China and South Korea.While many Chinese suppliers have now resumed production, it is still not at full capacity- normalcy is still not in sight. The "tough call" of airlifting some components in the short run can potentially pass on increased cost on to consumers.
India sees this an opportunity - an opportunity to increase production capacity, expand trade, follow an export-driven model and give a thrust to the ‘Make in India’ campaign - its also an opportunity to explore other markets to procure raw material and decrease dependence on Chinese imports.Moreover, it is expected that the virus outbreak would pave the way for more foreign investments in emerging countries like India, as the world looks to reduce dependence on China.
There is a fear that the world’s over-reliance on China will continue to hurt global growth until the virus is contained. And a sharp slowdown in global growth could offset some of the benefits to Indian companies, too.
While efforts to limit the spread of Coronavirus are ongoing, attentions are also focused on measures to reduce the risk of future outbreaks.
The spotlight is falling on food supply chain, health and safety and this could drive new demand for flexible packaging in China. more
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Please if some independant private enterprise would conduct a count we would know the exact number of India's COVID deaths. In fact 3 such different enterprises, one being the Tatas could carry out the count. They donate so much, and also into philanthropy, could easily take this up. Simply match their counts and they should approximately tally for being unbiased. For objectivity sake separate the accounting from the accountant. These numbers would show this government in true light. There have been much speculation that these numbers propagated by government is 5 to 10 times understated. Even statistical analysis shows this plausibility since most contacts have had one or more corona virus caused fatality. Government will, in their selfish interest justifying themselves would love showing this figure as low. more
Jul 13
Refer CAMA (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis) working paper 19/2020 Feb.,2020 - The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios [Australian National University] more
Mar 11
