At 2 year mark, 51% citizens surveyed rate Modi Government 2.0 as Meeting Expectations: 24% rating drop in 2 years concerning

May 29, 2021, New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA Government took its oath on May 30th, 2019 for the second term. In a year that was marked by COVID-19 spread and lockdowns followed by unlocking and economic recovery, farmer protests, vaccination drive, and then state elections and the COVID 2nd wave, the Government, which looked to be in a strong position even till late February, is now perceived as faltering by a section of the citizenry.

LocalCircles, for the last 7 years has been conducting an annual assessment via citizens’ survey exercise to gauge the performance of the Government. It is this survey released on 6th of March 2019, a month before the national elections which brought out that 75% citizens felt that the Modi Government 1.0 in its 5 years of governance had met or exceeded expectations. Proving the findings true, the Modi-led NDA Government won elections in 353 parliamentary seats, and the BJP winning 303 seats alone bringing the Government back to power with an even bigger majority.

As the Modi Government completes its 2-year mark on May 30th, 2021, LocalCircles has gone back to the citizens to rate over 15 areas of Government functioning and the overall 2-year performance of the Modi Government 2.0. Over 169,000 responses were received from over 70,000 citizens residing in 280 districts of India. 69% of the participants were men while 31% were women.

This year, a total of 51% of citizens said that the Government has either met or exceeded their expectations in the last 2 years. Around 21% of citizens said the Government has exceeded their expectations while 30% said that the Government met their expectations. A similar survey by LocalCircles was conducted in 2020 to know citizens’ pulse on the performance by the Modi Government after the 1st year of its second term. In the then survey, 62% of citizens rated it as either meeting or exceeding their expectations. This means, in the 2nd year of its second term, citizens who have rated Modi Government 2.0 as meeting or exceeding expectation declined by 11%. Similarly in 2019, the percentage of citizens that had rated Modi Government as meeting or exceeding expectations was 75%, thereby marking a fall of 24% in the two-year period.

Below is a summary of the survey findings in different areas of Government functioning:

State of the Economy

In January this year, the S&P Global Ratings forecast Indian Gross Domestic growth at 11% for the financial year 2020-21. As the COVID-19 outbreak continued to impact India with the number of infections and deaths rising at an alarming level, the S&P downgraded the country’s GDP growth to 9.8% in May 2021. India’s economy had just started to recover from the 1st wave of COVID-19 in September 2020. The imposition of lockdown-like restrictions in states with high caseload started in April 2021. While the Government was already fighting the economic downturn, the 2nd wave of the Coronavirus pandemic pulled the economy back even further. Most states and UTs are observing lockdown or lockdown-like restrictions for more than a month, though daily cases have declined from its peak of 414,000 cases in mid-May to over 2 lakh cases currently.

Amidst the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, India’s unemployment rate rose to a 4-month high of nearly 8% in April. It increased to 7.97% from 6.5% in March, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. The major cause for the increase in unemployment has mainly been due to the lockdowns in various states. It will likely increase further amidst the 2nd wave of COVID-19. In the LocalCircles’ survey, only 27% of citizens said the Government has been able to address the unemployment situation in the last 2 years. 61% answered ‘no’. Most Indian startups and MSMEs have already started to suffer losses, leading to layoffs in jobs and business closures. There is an urgent need for the Government to step in to save small businesses. India has done substantially well in areas like starting a business, import-export trade permits, resolving insolvency etc., and businesses have appreciated these efforts. The 2nd wave of Covid has brought mounting challenges to the Government and has forced most states to impose lockdowns and restrictions since April 2021, which continues to impact businesses, especially Startups and MSMEs of the country.

While the Government has eased out administrative processes to register a startup, apply for patents, doing business with the Government or Indian corporates and getting paid on time continues to be a challenge for startups. 44% of startups and SMEs of the country in the LocalCircles survey said that establishing, operating and growing a business has become easier in the last 2 years. 38% feel it has not. In 2020, during the 1st wave of the Covid outbreak, the Government had announced INR 20 lakh crore Aatmanirbhar Bharat economic stimulus package to revive India’s economic track after the COVID-19 pandemic. There were, however, teething issues that small businesses faced to avail these benefits and many didn’t’ have existing debt or loans on their books to qualify under the Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme. When asked if Doing Business in India has been easier in the last 2 years, 41% said yes and 42% said no. 17% were unsure. Several reforms were introduced by the Government in the last 2 years to eliminate human interfaces with electronic interfaces such that the room for harassment by tax officials is minimised. 57% of citizens in the survey expressed their confidence that harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 2 years.

Government’s handling of Parliament & Foreign Affairs

The Parliament took some bold decisions in the last 2 years. This included the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and the scrapping of Article 370, bringing in the Triple Talaq Bill 2019, Consumer Protection Act 2019 and Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, to name a few. In the 2020 monsoon session of the Parliament, India enacted new Farm Laws, which has been highly criticized by the opposition leaders and followed a nationwide protest that escalated on January 26, India’s Republic Day. On the parameter of handling the Parliament, only 61% of citizens felt the Government has been able to effectively handle Parliament and deliver on key bills in the last 2 years. When it came to India’s influence in the world, the rating has declined to 59% this year, but the approval ratings continue to be high on the backdrop of India’s effort to provide COVID-19 vaccines to many countries. The Government hasn’t been able to do much in the state of affairs, such as communal harmony as most of the year has been under the ambit of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the related poll, only 49% of citizens felt that the Government has been effective in improving communal harmony in the last 2 years. On the other hand, 70% of citizens believe that terrorism and acts of terror in India or against Indians have reduced in the last 2 years.

Mood of the Citizens

When the Prime Minister announced a country-wide lockdown on March 24th, 2020, India had reported a total of 536 COVID-19 positive cases. As the 1st wave of COVID-19 intensified, authorities had widely used testing, treatment, tracking and containment protocol to contain and mitigate the spread. Both the Central and State Governments played an active role to revamp health infrastructure, mandating physical distancing and masking protocols vis-à-vis rapid action from health services followed by the confidence from vaccine development had largely contributed to minimizing the COVID impact during the 1st wave. 70% of citizens believe that the Government of India has effectively handled the 1st wave of COVID-19 in terms of testing, treatment and containment.

Many things determine a citizen’s quality of life in a country. Some of these are the rate of inflation, income, cost of living, public amenities, transport, infrastructure etc. However, only 19% of citizens in the LocalCircles poll said that prices of essential commodities and cost of living have reduced in the last 2 years. Eliminating corruption was an important part of the Modi Government’s election manifestos of both 2014 and 2019. Although many steps have been taken by them to fight corruption, only 39% of citizens believed that corruption in India has reduced in the last 2 years.

India implemented the countrywide lockdown from March 24th till May 31, 2020, and the unlocking post that then the imposition of lockdown-like restrictions from April 2021. In 2020, prices of essentials paid by consumers on the ground have been higher due to supply disruption. In some cases, consumers were overcharged by traders and retailers. As a result, only 19% of citizens said ‘Yes’ the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living have reduced in the last 2 years. In a related LocalCircles survey conducted in May 2021, 49% of startups and MSMEs said they plan to reduce their employee compensation and benefits costs by July 2021 to sustain themselves in the 2nd wave of the pandemic. With no stimulus package for commoners or small businesses in sight, this is likely to have another negative impact on people’s personal finance and household economy.

Handling of 2nd wave of COVID-19 Crisis & its impact on the Economy

India’s highest daily Covid caseload in 2020 was 97,400, as recorded on September 10. No one had imagined that the impact of the 2nd wave of Covid could be of such vehemence that reached its peak to over 4 lakh cases during end-April this year. Though the infection rate started to decline from the 2nd-3rd week of May 2021 by more than 1 lakh cases to nearly 3 lakh cases, the death rate continues to take a toll that has crossed 3 lakh fatalities as the virus reaches out to villages in rural areas of the country. The Government faced heavy criticism over holding rallies in poll-bound states, and for failing to ensure compliance with the Covid protocol while holding religious events or gatherings such as the Kumbh Mela and Char Dham Yatra. 50% of citizens said the Government executed the COVID-19 testing, tracking, treatment and containment either quite poorly or not effectively. This period saw India's healthcare crumble down to its breaking point as millions continue to battle for their lives, several died in line for treatment, and finding space even at crematoriums had become difficult. Hospitals were hit by an acute shortage of ICU beds, oxygen concentrators and cylinders, and related management drugs. The wailing sound of racing ambulances ferrying COVID patients to hospitals became a daily affair for atleast a month in many districts across India. The Government rolled out the 3rd phase of the immunization drive for all citizens above 18 years from May 2021. However, many states complained that they are out-of-supply of Covid vaccines vis-à-vis reported by citizens on LocalCircles’ platform suggesting that they or their family or friends who went to the vaccination center had to return without taking a jab due to shortage. States like Delhi claimed they faced vaccine shortage, citing insufficiency in delivery of vaccine by the manufacturer as demanded by the Government. There were also teething issues when people tried to register themselves for vaccination via the CO-WIN site or the Aarogya Setu app. Many citizens continue to face difficulties getting an appointment, receiving an OTP and other issues on the CO-WIN site so much so that hundreds of BOT-based programs are being used by programmers to alert people to a vaccine appointment slot that becomes available. When citizens were asked about the development, procurement, distribution, appointments, roll out and administration of the COVID-19 vaccine, only 55% of citizens believe that the Government handled it well. When citizens were asked how they felt India handled the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, 32% said the Government handled the wave quite poorly, and 18% said not effectively.

66% of citizens believe that the Government has effectively handled the economic recovery post the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, wrong priorities, lack of preparedness, and indecisiveness led to significant damage in the Covid 2nd wave that has dented the confidence of a section of the population in the Government.

The need of the hour is for the Government to admit mistakes, course correct and swiftly move to contain the spread of Covid, accelerate vaccination and chart an economic recovery plan better than the one of 2020. Given the lethal nature of the mutant strains and their air transmission, it is likely that 2021 will be much more difficult than 2020 on all fronts but the Modi Government must be on the front foot to do whatever it takes to get India out of this pandemic.

Through a series of graphics and charts, this report outlines how citizens have rated the Modi Government 2.0 at its two-year mark.

51% citizens rate Modi Government 2.0 as Meeting Expectations; rating fell by 24% in last 2 years

Comparison of 2021 citizen ratings to 2020 citizen ratings

LocalCircles had conducted a similar survey in 2020 to assess the performance of the Government in 2019. If we compare the last year’s results with this year’s results, it looks like the citizen ratings for the Government have gone down in many areas.

Last year, 56% of citizens had said that the Government has not been able to address the unemployment situation. This number has jumped to 61% this year. In two years, the COVID-19 and subsequent lockdowns have had a drastic effect on the already struggling Indian economy resulting in business disruption and massive job losses. This has partially contributed to the downward trending ratings on addressing unemployment in the survey.

41% in 2021, compared to 43% last year and 63% a year before said that doing business in India has become easier.

When it came to India’s influence in the world, the ratings have continued to reduce from 88% in 2019 and 79% in 2020 to 59% this year, but the approval ratings continue to be high on the backdrop of India’s effort to provide COVID-19 vaccines to other nations.

Effectively handling the Parliament and delivering on key bills has also seen a reduced improvement. 61% this year have said that the Government has done well in this space, compared to 75% last year who said the same thing.

49% of citizens last year had said that corruption in the country had reduced. This percentage has reduced further to 39% in this year’s survey, indicating that a lesser number of people feel that corruption has reduced in the last 1 year.

Many businesses have struggles, which is evident from the survey’s results where 41% of citizens, compared to 43% last year have said that doing business has become easier over time.

Last year, 36% of citizens had said that they feel that prices of essential commodities and the cost of living had reduced. This number has dramatically dropped down over the last 2 years, to 19% of citizens this year expressing similar confidence.

Overall, the citizen approval rating of Modi Government performance in one year has dropped from 62% in 2020 to 51% in 2021. However, it’s noteworthy that 62% of citizens are still optimistic about their and their family’s future in India.

Citizen Assessment of Modi Government over time – Year 2019 vs Year 2020 vs Year 2021

Poll 1 – Reduction in Unemployment

The first question asked citizens if the Government of India has been able to address the unemployment situation in the last 2 years. In response, only 27% said ‘yes’ while 61% said ‘no’. This question in the survey received 9,172 responses.

Only 27% citizens believe that the Government has been able to effectively tackle unemployment in India

Majority believe that Government is not able to address the unemployment issue

In 2019, 48% of people said India addressed the issue of unemployment. In 2020, this percentage stood at 29%. This year, only 27% of people have expressed similar confidence. This indicates that the majority of citizens continue to believe that the Government is not able to address the critical issue of unemployment.

Poll 2 - Ease of Doing Business

When asked doing business has been easier in the last 2 years, 41% said yes and 42% said no. 17% were unsure. This question in the survey received 10,469 responses.

The Government has said that many key reforms for Ease of Doing Business are in the pipeline including the direct listing of securities by Indian public companies in permissible foreign jurisdictions. The Government has also announced the suspension of fresh initiation of insolvency proceedings up to one year and has also decided to exclude COVID-19 related debt from the definition of “default” under IBC.

41% citizens believe doing business has become easier in the last 2 years

Progress in Doing Business Easier in India has declined in the last few years

Alternatively, survey findings of the last few years on progress in making Doing Business Easier in India point out that 63% of citizens in the 2019 survey said “Yes” they feel doing business has been easier in India in the last 2 years. In the 2020 and 2021 surveys, 43% and 41% of citizens expressed their consent to the question. This indicates that the progress in making Doing Business Easier in India has slowed down in the last few years.

Poll 3 - India's image in the world

India’s relation with other countries has been mostly good the last few years with the except for its neighbour China. Post attempts by China in the Galwan valley, India responded on the economic front quite boldly shutting many products and services from China. On the vaccine front, India engaged in vaccine diplomacy and shipped vaccines to several countries. The country’s image, however, took a severe beating in the last 45 days as videos and images of overloaded crematoriums, hospitals and deaths, acute shortage of medical oxygen in hospitals went viral as the COVID 2nd wave hit India —couldn’t be handled effectively. Most major countries have currently stopped flights from India as well after the B.1.617.2 SARS-COV2 strain started spreading rapidly across the country. Citizens were asked if they feel India's image and influence in the world has improved in the last 2 years, 59% voted in its favour while 35% voted against it, and 6% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 8,204 responses.

59% citizens believe India’s image and influence in the world has improved in the last 2 years

Citizens believe there has been a decline in India’s influence in the world over time

In 2019, 88% of citizens believed that India’s influence in the world has improved. In this year’s survey, 59% of people expressed similar confidence, which is a decline from 79% in 2020. This indicates that many more people believe there is a decline in India’s influence in the world over time. This has traditionally been an area of strength of the Modi Government since 2015 and is something that the Government must act upon.

Poll 4 – Reduction in Corruption

Eliminating corruption was an important part of the Modi Government’s election manifestos of both 2014 and 2019. Although many steps have been taken by them to fight corruption with the introduction of technology in the 2014-2019 term, there has been limited progress made in the last 2 years. Tax was one area where several tainted officers and employees were terminated in 2019. In the corruption-related poll, 39% said they believe corruption in India has reduced in the last 2 years. 51% of citizens said it has not reduced, while 10% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 9,237 responses.

Only 39% citizens believe that corruption has reduced in the last 2 years

Fewer people believe corruption in India reduced in the last few years

In the 2019 survey, 64% of people had said that corruption has reduced in the last 2 years. This percentage dropped to 49% in the 2020 survey, and now stands at 39%. This indicates that fewer people now believe that corruption has reduced in the last few years.

Poll 5 - Reduction in harassment by Tax Officials

Several reforms were introduced by the Government in the last 2 years to eliminate human interfaces with electronic interfaces such that the room for harassment is minimised. 57% of citizens said they believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 2 years, while 26% said it has not reduced. 17% were not sure about it. The Government is expected to continue to introduce additional technology and data intelligence such that it can go after the tax evaders in a much more targeted manner without any harassment of the compliant citizens and businesses. This question in the survey received 8,896 responses.

57% of citizens believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last 2 years

With many new taxpayer reforms like faceless assessment, more people believe harassment by tax officials has reduced

In 2019, 63% of citizens said there has been a reduction in harassment by tax officials. This number reduced to 52% in 2020 but increased to 57% in 2021. This indicates that more people believe harassment by tax officials has reduced in the last one year.

Poll 6 – Improving Communal Harmony

The Government hasn’t been able to do much to improve communal harmony as most of the year has been under the ambit of the COVID-19 outbreak. In the related poll, only 49% of citizens felt the Government has been effective in improving communal harmony in the last 2 years. 45% of citizens disagreed and 6% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 9,244 responses.

49% citizens believe the Government has been effective in handling issues related to Communalism in the last 2 years

Fewer people believe the Government will be able to improve communal harmony

A similar question when citizens were asked in the 2019 survey, 69% had expressed their confidence in Government’s ability to improve communal harmony at the time. In 2020, the same question received 56% of citizens’ consent; now in the year 2021, 49% of citizens have expressed similar confidence. This indicates that people’s confidence in the Government’s ability to improve communal harmony has reduced over time.

Poll 7 - Ease of establishing Startup or small business

The Startup India Mission was launched to help startups in India get an inclusive environment and foster their growth. With the number of registered startups double from 20,000 to 40,000 in the last 5 years, India has the world’s 2nd largest startup ecosystem, which has also been attracting FDI and generating employment and wealth in the last 5 years. The Government in 2019 also brought in a solution to end the angel tax which was a major pain point for startups where capital raised for startups was being treated as income by the taxman. When asked if establishing, operating and growing a startup has become easier in the last 2 years, 44% answered in a positive while 38% answered in a negative, and 18% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 9,803 responses.

While the Government has eased out administrative processes to register a startup, apply for patents, doing business with the Government or Indian corporates and getting paid on time continues to be a challenge for startups. Most Government departments continue to be reluctant in working with startups and awarding contracts to them, and most of the payments are late creating a liquidity crisis for revenue-dependent startups. On the funding front, early-stage investments continued to decline in 2019 due to the macro environment and have come to a standstill post-COVID-19. With the 2nd Covid wave, the early-stage startups investments are likely to suffer and the Government must look at innovative ways to support this ecosystem.

Only 44% citizens believe establishing, operating and growing a startup or small business has become easier in the last 2 years

Increasing number of citizens believe establishing, operating and growing a startup/small business in India has become easier

In the 2020 LocalCircles survey, only 37% of citizens said it has become easier to establish, operate and grow a startup or small business in India. This percentage has increased to 44% of citizens expressing similar confidence in this year’s survey. However, the percentage of citizens voting “No” has increased from 31% in 2020 to 38% in 2021. Overall, this is one of the few areas where citizens believe the Government has done well.

Poll 8 – Reduction in Prices of Essential Commodities & Cost of Living

The annual Inflation rate in India was 4.29% in April 2021. Post the lockdown since April 2021, prices of essentials paid by consumers on the ground have been higher than usual due to the lack of supply availability and in some cases overcharging by traders and retailers. As a result, only 19% of citizens said ‘Yes’ the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living have reduced in the last 2 years. The majority of 77% of citizens said ‘No’ it hasn’t, while 4% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 8,658 responses.

Only 19% citizens believe that the prices of essential commodities and the cost of living has reduced in the last 2 years

Many people feel the Government is unable to control the prices of essential commodities

57% of citizens in the 2019 survey had said “Yes” the Government has been able to effectively control the prices of essential commodities. Only 36% in the 2020 survey and just 19% in the 2021 survey received citizens’ consent to this question. This indicates that in the last 3 years, an increasing number of people now believe that the Government is unable to effectively control the prices of essential commodities. Many people believe the ways adopted by the Government to track prices of essentials on the ground are obsolete and do not capture the reality and demands that immediate changes must be made to upgrade this system.

Poll 9 - Reduction in Terrorism

Citizens were asked if they believe terrorism and acts of terror in India/against Indians have reduced in the last 2 years. 70% said yes while 24% said no, and 6% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 9,350 responses.

70% citizens believe terrorism and acts of terror in India/against Indians have reduced in the last 2 years

Increasing number of people believe terrorism and acts of terror in India have reduced

85% of citizens in 2019 had expressed confidence that the Government took enough measures to reduce terrorism and acts of terror in India. In the 2021 survey, 70% of people expressed similar confidence, which has increased from 56% in the last year’s survey. This indicates that an increasing number of people believe that terrorism and acts of terror in India have reduced in the last 2 years. Some of this can be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Poll 10 – Tackling Pollution

Pollution in the country has been a big talking point over the years. 10 of the cities with the worst quality in the world are in India led by none other than the National Capital Region of India. With PM 2.5 hitting 1000+ for many days in October and November every year, Indian needs an urgent solution to this crisis. The solution requires ensuring an end to the burning of farm stubble by making sure crop sowing cycles have timely availability of water and stubble, either decomposed naturally or picked up by a Government facilitated service. This along with modern street cleaning equipment, restricted vehicular movement, etc must be implemented. When citizens were asked about the efforts taken by the Government to reduce pollution in the last 2 years, 53% of citizens said the Government did not take enough measures to improve air quality in the last 2 years. 38% said they felt enough steps were taken. This question in the survey received 9,899 responses.

Only 38% citizens believe Government has taken enough measures to improve air quality in the last 2 years

People feel the Government isn’t taking enough measures to improve air quality and reduce pollution

39% of citizens in 2020 had expressed confidence that the Government took enough measures to improve air quality. This year as well, only 38% of people expressed a similar confidence. This indicates that the majority of citizens continue to believe that the Government isn’t taking enough measures to improve air quality and reduce pollution in the country.

Poll 11 – Government’s handling of Parliament

The Parliament took some bold decisions in the last 2 years. This included the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and the scrapping of Article 370, The Triple Talaq Bill 2019, Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, and the Consumer Protection Act 2019. In the 2020 monsoon session of the Parliament, India enacted new Farm Laws, which has been highly criticized by the opposition leaders and followed a nationwide protest that heightened on January 26, India’s Republic Day. Even parliamentarians from the United Kingdom, Canada, and other foreign nations had expressed solidarity with the protesters. On this parameter, 61% of citizens felt the Government has been able to effectively handle Parliament and deliver on key bills in the last 2 years. 33% felt that they weren’t able to effectively handle the parliament and deliver on key bills, and 6% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 8,525 responses. One of the key inputs where there is consensus amongst citizens is the need for the Government to discuss and debate on issues rather than bring laws through ordinances.

61% citizens believe Government has effectively handled Parliament and delivered on key bills in the last 2 years

With Parliament working days getting curtailed due to Covid, fewer citizens believe Government was effective in handling parliament than those who did last year

65% of citizens in the year 2019 had expressed confidence that the Government effectively handle Parliament and deliver on key bills in the last 2 years. In this year’s survey, 61% of people expressed similar confidence, which declined from 75% in 2020. This indicates that fewer citizens believe that the Government was effective in handling parliament than those who did last year.

Poll 12 – Delivering to Manifesto Promises

The NDA manifesto included key items like abrogation of Article 360 and Triple Talaq and bringing in the National Register of Citizens. All 3 of these were delivered by the Government in the last 1 year. However, the Government has little to show in areas like employment creation and jobs, healthcare and environment. When people were asked about Government’s delivery to the manifesto, 50% of people said that they feel the Government is on track to deliver on the promises made in its pre-election manifesto. This question in the survey received 9,031 responses.

Only 50% citizens Government is on track to deliver to the promises made in its manifesto

Fewer people believe the Government will be able to deliver its manifesto promises

70% in 2019 believed in Government’s ability to deliver the promises made in its 2019 manifesto. 59% of people in 2020 had expressed similar confidence, which stands at 50% in the current year. The comparative findings of the last 3 years indicate that fewer people now have confidence that the Government will be able to deliver the promise made in its 2019 manifesto.

Poll 13 – Optimism about Future

The 2nd wave of COVID-19 has brought in sizable uncertainty in people’s lives with many losing their near and dear ones to it. However, Indian’s are an optimistic lot and many continue to believe that India is yet to arrive. Citizens were asked if they feel optimistic about their and family's future in India. 62% answered in positive while 32% answered in negative, while 6% did not have an opinion. This question received 9,856 responses.

62% citizens feel optimistic about their and their family’s future in India

While 62% still optimistic about their and family’s future in India, optimism levels are on a steady decline

82% of citizens in 2019 were optimistic about their and family’s future. In this year’s survey, 62% of people expressed similar optimism, which continues to decline from 69% in 2020. There is very clearly a section of the population whose hopes have been shattered, especially post the second COVID wave. Many believe that India missed the first global growth wave in 2016-17 due to demonetisation and GST and is now one of the last large nations to recover from Covid pandemic. This explains the decline in optimism amongst a section of the population.

Poll 14 – Handling the 1st wave of COVID-19 crisis

When the Prime Minister announced a country-wide lockdown on March 24th, 2020, India had reported a total of 536 COVID-19 positive cases. As the 1st wave of COVID-19 intensified, authorities had widely used testing, treatment, tracking and containment protocol to contain and mitigate the spread. Both the Central and State Governments played an active role to revamp health infrastructure, mandating physical distancing and masking protocols vis-à-vis rapid action from health services followed by the confidence from vaccine development that largely contributed in minimizing the COVID impact during the 1st wave.

A question in the survey sought citizens’ response on how the Government of India handled the 1st wave of COVID-19 pandemic in terms of testing, treatment and containment. In response, 40% said “very effectively”, and 30% said “somewhat effectively”. Breaking down the poll, 12% said “not effectively”, 16% said “quite poorly”, while 2% couldn’t say. The findings of the poll indicate that 70% of citizens believe that he Government of India has effectively handled the 1st wave of COVID-19 in terms of testing, treatment and containment. This question in the survey received 9,208 responses.

70% citizens believe that he Government has effectively handled the first wave of COVID-19(testing, treatment and containment)

Poll 15 - Economic Recovery post-1st COVID-19 wave

During the initial months of the last year’s country-wide lockdown, the Indian economy was left battered by a strict nationwide lockdown, resulting in the economy contracting by 23.9% during April-June 2020. Even after relaxation to sectors that started to gradually reopen, India’s GDP in the September quarter contracted at a slower pace and fell 7.5% from a year ago. Fast forward amid several boosters by the Union Government to revive the economy and lockdown relaxed for all sectors as COVID-19 cases fell drastically, financial experts were quoted stating that the economy was seeing a ‘V-shaped’ recovery. At the beginning of 2021, S&P Global Ratings forecast Indian gross domestic product growth at 11% for the coming financial year.

The following question asked citizens’ responses on how the Government of India has handled the economic recovery during and post the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, 36% said “very effectively”, and 30% said “somewhat effectively”. Breaking down the poll, 15% said “not effectively”, and 17% said “quite poorly”, while 2% couldn’t say. The findings of the survey suggest that 66% of citizens believe that the Government has effectively handled the economic recovery post the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. This question in the survey received 9,332 responses.

66% citizens believe that the Government effectively handled the economic recovery post the 1st wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Poll 16 – Handling of COVID 2nd wave

When citizens were asked about the Government of India’s handling of the COVID 2nd wave from a testing, tracking, treatment and containment standpoint, only 49% of citizens believe that it handled the wave effectively. 32% said the Government of India handled the wave quite poorly, 18% said not effectively, and 1% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 10,514 responses. Many citizens shared that the Government of India failed to anticipate the 2nd wave, did not listen to collective citizen input on delaying the resumption of UK flights and despite the wave hitting parts of India, continued with 5 state and panchayat polls.

Many have repeatedly questioned why the Government moved forward with the Kumbh celebration in Haridwar which turned out to be a super spreader event leading to an increase in the number of Covid cases in the host state as well as across other states. During the 2nd wave, many have been struggling to get Covid testing, finding a hospital bed to finding oxygen, medicines, ICU, ventilator, and a timely cremation for those who passed away. Many just could not believe how in the 21st century India, people could lose their life because of lack of timely oxygen supply in leading hospitals.

Many of those who do believe that the Government handled the 2nd wave effectively, their districts just did not experience struggles residents of states like Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu had to go through. Some others who rated the Government’s handling as effective believed that the virus was so lethal that it could have impacted even a developed country as badly. However, with 50% of citizens believing that the Government of India handled the 2nd wave either quite poorly or not effectively must have a strong-enough reason for the Government to reflect and course-correct, so Indians do not have to experience anything as such even remotely close in the years to come.

49% citizens believe that the Government effectively handled the 2nd wave of COVID-19 (testing, tracking, treatment and containment)

Poll 17 - COVID-19 Vaccine development, procurement, distribution, appointments, roll out and administration

While India started well on the development of vaccines, many who got their vaccines till the end of March reported positive experiences. However, in April, supply, logistics and distribution of vaccines on the ground and with case loads rising, declining vaccine hesitancy, vaccine shortages started. In late-April, per LocalCircles survey, 51% of citizens had someone in their close network of family, friends, and colleagues could not get the jab at the vaccination center. The CO-WIN system made available to book appointments remind people of the case of IRCTC website two decades ago, where developers would write “special scripts” to find tickets. The same is the case here with hundreds of BOT sites alerting people on when an appointment becomes available on CO-WIN app. This has not gone well with Indians. Citizens were asked about the development, procurement, distribution, appointments, rollout and administration of the COVID-19 vaccine by the Government Only 55% of citizens believe that the Government handled it well. 31% said it handled the vaccine rollout quite poorly, and 18% said not effectively. This question in the survey received 9,276 responses.

55% citizens believe that the Government effectively handled the COVID-19 Vaccine development, procurement, distribution, appointments, roll out and administration

Poll 18 - Overall Performance

The next and final question asked citizens about the overall performance of Modi Government 2.0. Overall, 21% of citizens rated the 2-years performance of Modi Government 2.0 exceeding expectations while 30% rated it as meeting their expectations. 49% said that the performance was below expectations. This question in the survey received 11,314 responses.

51% citizens believe Modi Government performance has met or exceeded expectations in the last 2 years while 49% find it to be below expectations

Citizen approval rating of Modi Government 2.0 performance steadily declines from 75% in 2019 to 51% in 2021

75% of citizens in 2019 had expressed confidence in the performance of Government 2.0. In two years of the Modi-led Government, citizen approval rating on the performance of the Government has steadily declined to 51% in the current year marking a 24% drop in the approval rating of the Government.

Summary & Way Forward

The past year for the Modi Government 2.0 has been about handling the Covid 1st wave, from lockdown to unlocking, driving the economic recovery, developing and administering the Covid vaccine, and then handling the Covid 2nd wave in addition to getting a grip on regular issues of unemployment, ease of doing business, fighting corruption, etc.

While the Modi Government 2.0, according to people, did reasonably well to handle the Covid 1st wave and driving the economic recovery thereafter, it could not handle the 2nd wave of Covid effectively. The need of the hour is for the Government to take all possible actions to contain the current wave while opening the economy carefully and supporting small businesses. In parallel, it needs to rapidly ramp up vaccination and prioritise its focus areas and bring healthcare to the very top. It is extremely critical that India stands prepared to handle the 3rd wave of COVID-19 as and when and if it arrives.

If handling Covid is made the topmost priority, with the Government taking full ownership rather than passing the buck to the states, India is bound to bounce back and get back to the 10% plus growth rate sooner rather than later. Getting back to the high-growth territory will also address some of the key issues outlined by citizens and arrest the 2-year 24% decline in the Government’s approval ratings.

Survey Demographics

Over 169,000 responses were received from over 70,000 citizens residing in 280 districts of India. 69% of the participants were men while 31% were women. 46% respondents were from tier 1 districts, 28% from tier 2 and 26% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. They survey was conducted via the LocalCircles platform and all participants are validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.