India @ 75: 3 in 4 citizens believe India’s economy will significantly recover from the impact of COVID within the next year; 58% confident that India is well prepared to handle a 3rd COVID wave

August 13, 2021, New Delhi: As India steps into its 75th year of independence, there is a lot to celebrate but also there is a lot more to do. The past year and a half in India have been marked by COVID-19 spread and lockdowns followed by unlocking and economic recovery, farmer protests, vaccination drive, state elections, and then a brutal COVID 2nd wave, and unlocking. The outbreak in the span of 2 months of April and May 2021 tested Central and State Governments in their preparedness and effectiveness to handle the outbreak vis-à-vis Governance. The increase in daily COVID cases caused utter chaos across hospitals in many parts of the country with many facing an acute shortage of oxygen cylinders & concentrators, ventilators & ICU beds, COVID management medicines & testing facilities, and related supplies & equipment. An increasing number of patients laid in line for the treatment in almost every district hospital and many died; some deaths did not even find a mention on the official COVID count.

India’s economy had just started to recover from the 1st wave of COVID-19 in September 2020. In January this year, the S&P Global Ratings forecast Indian Gross Domestic growth at 11% for the financial year 2020-21. As the COVID-19 outbreak continued to impact India with the number of infections and deaths rising at an alarming level, the S&P downgraded the country’s GDP growth to 9.8% in May 2021. The unemployment rate in the country rose to a 4-month high of nearly 8% in April. It increased to 7.97% from 6.5% in March, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. Most small businesses also suffered another setback during the 2nd wave-induced lockdown this year in March-May 2020, leading to some layoffs and business closures.

With the reduction or loss of household earnings, rising prices of fuel and essentials like vegetables and edible oil, the middle class and the lowest class are facing a serious squeeze. With many dipping into savings from the previous decade to just run their households, the economic challenge has been real. Combine that with many coping with the loss of a loved one, or a member of the extended family or friend and a cloud of uncertainty about the 3rd wave, many are feeling grim.

LocalCircles since 2017 has been asking the citizens of India about their expectations of what India will achieve by 2022 when it completes 75 years of independence. With India now entering into its 75th year of Independence on August 15th, 2022, LocalCircles has gone back to the citizens once again to ask them about what India is likely to achieve in the next 1 year or before completing 75 years of freedom. Feedback from citizens has been sought on various national issues ranging from corruption to social stability, and from India being able to leverage its demographic dividend to economic recovery from the impact of COVID, and the most pressing issue of preparedness for handling the 3rd COVID wave after it faced a major setback during the 2nd COVID wave.

This year’s survey received over 75,000 responses from citizens located in over 280 districts of the country. 68% respondents were men while 32% respondents were women. 43% respondents were from tier 1, 37% from tier 2 and 20% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts.

58% citizens foresee India’s clout in the world improving in the next 1 year before India completes 75

The recently concluded Olympic Games Tokyo 2020 has, in a way, brought some sporting glory to India in an international arena—the most successful in the country’s 120-year history of the competition—with 1 gold medal in javelin throw; 2 silver medals in women’s weightlifting (49kg) and men’s freestyle wrestling (57kg); 4 bronze medals in men’s hockey, women’s welterweight boxing, women’s singles badminton, and men’s freestyle wrestling (65kg). Besides the Olympics, India’s relation with other countries has been mostly good in the last few years. India engaged in vaccine diplomacy and shipped vaccines to several countries. The country’s image, however, took a severe beating during the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 outbreak as videos and images of overloaded crematoriums, hospitals and deaths, acute shortage of oxygen across hospitals went viral. Major countries still have flights from India under suspension. When citizens were asked how they see India’s clout in the world changing in the next 1 year, 58% said they see it “improving” while 19% said they see it “deteriorating”. 20% said it will “stay the same as it is currently”. This question in the survey received 11,218 responses.

With only 1 year left before India turns 75, fewer people now foresee India’s clout in the world improving

If the reasons given by citizens are evaluated in the order of priority, it suggests that fewer people currently foresee India’s clout in the world improving. To the similar question asked in the 2018 and 2019 surveys or before the COVID-19 hit India, 79% of citizens said that India’s clout in the world is improving. This percentage declined to 69% in the 2020 survey, and is currently at 58% with fewer people expecting progress in the short span of a year.

Only 20% Indians foresee growth and prosperity for all in the next year before India completes 75

One of the biggest challenges for India has been its ability to drive equitable growth. During the two years of the pandemic, it is those that are at the bottom of the pyramid that have faced the most difficult times. While the privileged worked from home through the pandemic and continued to earn a livelihood, many others like daily wage earners with no savings to dip into had to rely on Government Food Support programs for their daily meals. With the 2nd wave of the COVID pandemic and two months of lockdown pulling the economy back further, the key challenge in the next 12 months would be driving economic survival for all. The next question in the survey focused on getting an assessment of the level of confidence people have in India’s ability to drive growth and prosperity for all. In response, only 20% of citizens surveyed said they foresee “growth and prosperity for all” in the next year before India completes 75. Breaking down the poll, 37% said they believe it will be “growth and prosperity for most”, and 40% said it will be “growth and prosperity for a few”. There were also 2% of citizens who said they foresee “growth and prosperity for none”, while 1% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,155 responses.

With only 1 year left before India completes 75, confidence levels about India being able to drive growth and prosperity for all remains low

If the reasons given by citizens are evaluated in the order of priority, it suggests that their confidence level about India being able to drive growth and prosperity for all remains low by the time India completes 75 years of independence next year. To the similar question asked in the 2018 survey, 30% of citizens and 22% of citizens in the 2019 survey, or before the COVID-19 hit India, said they foresee growth and prosperity for all. This percentage declined to 19% in the 2020 survey, and is currently at 20%.

Only 26% Indians foresee India being able to create enough employment and entrepreneurship opportunities in the next 1 year before India completes 75 years

Many Indian startups and MSMEs were challenged by the COVID pandemic in 2020 and yet again in 2021 leading to losses, job cuts and in some cases even business closures. While the Government has eased out administrative processes to register a startup, apply for patents, list a business in public markets, doing business with the Government or Indian corporates and getting paid on time continues to be a challenge for small businesses in addition to tens of permits that are needed to operate in India. There is an urgent need for the Government to eliminate bottlenecks to establish and run a business and to enable easy access to capital via funding and special low-interest loans for micro-businesses. The following question asked citizens about how they see India leveraging its demographic dividend by creating enough employment or entrepreneurship opportunities in the next 1 year. In response, 26% of citizens are hopeful that India “will create a lot of new employment and entrepreneurship opportunities”, while 38% said “will create only some new employment but many small entrepreneurs”. On the other hand, 15% of citizens said India “will be unable to create new employment nor small entrepreneurs”. 18% of citizens said India “will see shrinking of employment opportunities as well as number of small entrepreneurs”. 3% did not have an opinion. This question in the survey received 11,232 responses.

With only 1 year left before India completes 75, confidence levels about India being able to leverage demographic dividend and create enough jobs and entrepreneurship opportunities drop to an all-time low

If the reasons given by citizens are evaluated in the order of priority, it suggests that their confidence level about India being able to leverage demographic dividend and create enough jobs and entrepreneurship opportunities within the next one year is at an all-time low. To the similar question asked in the 2018 and 2019 surveys or before the COVID-19 hit India, 35% of citizens had said they were confident about India creating a lot of new employment and entrepreneurship opportunities. This percentage declined to 31% in the 2020 survey, and is currently at 26%.

Only 35% Indians foresee India being able to reduce bribery and corruption in the next 1 year before India completes 75

Eliminating corruption was an important part of the Modi Government’s election manifestos of both 2014 and 2019. Although many steps have been taken by the Government to fight corruption and bribery with the introduction of technology in the 2014-2019 term, there has been limited progress made in the last few years, especially on the ground. When people were asked about the progress they believe India is likely to make in reducing corruption and bribery, only 35% of citizens said they foresee the bribery and corruption situation in India “improving (less corruption)” in the next 1 year. 39% of citizens said it will be “same as it is right now”, and 25% said it will be “deteriorating (more corruption)”. This question in the survey received 10,907 responses.

With only 1 year left before India completes 75, confidence level about India being able to reduce corruption and bribery slightly improves

If reasons given by citizens are evaluated in the order of priority, it suggests that their confidence level about India being able to reduce corruption and bribery slightly improves as the country completes 75. To the similar question asked in the 2018 and 2019 surveys or before the COVID-19 hit India, 43% of citizens said they foresee bribery and corruption situation in India “improving (less corruption)”. This percentage declined to 26% in the 2020 survey, and is currently at 35%.

Only 26% Indians foresee India’s social stability improving in the next 1 year before India completes 75

The Parliament took some bold decisions in the last 2 years including the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir and the scrapping of Article 370, bringing in the Triple Talaq Bill 2019 and the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, to name a few. The Government hasn’t done much to improve communal harmony in the last few years and according to some experts, the situation has worsened in some parts of the country. When citizens were asked about how they foresee India’s social stability (ability of citizens of different caste and religion to live with each other in harmony and peace) changing in the next 1 year, 26% said they see it “improving”, while 34% said they see it “deteriorating”. 38% said it will stay the same as it is currently. This question in the survey received 10,652 responses.

With only 1 year left before India turns 75, confidence level about India being able to improve social stability stays low

If the reasons given by citizens are evaluated in the order of priority, it suggests that their confidence level about India being able to improve social stability in the next 1 year as it turns 75 is low. To the similar question, 43% of citizens in the 2018 survey and 42% of citizens in the 2019 survey, or before the COVID-19 hit India, said they foresee India’s social stability (ability of citizens of different caste and religion to live with each other in harmony and peace) “improving”. This percentage declined to 26% in the 2020 survey, and remains unchanged in the current survey.

3 in 4 Indians foresee India being able to significantly recover economically from the COVID pandemic in the next 1 year before India completes 75

During the initial months of last year’s COVID-induced country-wide lockdown, the Indian economy was left battered by a strict nationwide lockdown, resulting in the economy contracting by 23.9% during April-June 2020. Even after relaxation to sectors that started to gradually reopen, India’s GDP in the September quarter contracted at a slower pace and fell 7.5% from a year ago. Fast forward, amid several boosters by the Union Government to revive the economy and lockdown relaxed for all sectors as COVID-19 cases fell drastically, financial experts were quoted stating that the economy was seeing a ‘V-shaped’ recovery. At the beginning of 2021, S&P Global Ratings forecast Indian gross domestic product growth at 11% for the coming financial year.

The next question asked citizens about how they foresee economic recovery from the impact of COVID in the next 1 year. In response, 33% of citizens are hopeful that the economy “will recover completely and surpass pre-COVID 2019-20 GDP level”, and the other 11% said it “will recover completely but not surpass pre-COVID 2019-20 level”. Breaking down the poll, 31% of citizens said the economy “will recover significantly but not completely”, and 15% said it “will have limited recovery”. 3% of citizens said the economy “will not recover at all”, and 5% said it “will deteriorate further”, while 2% did not have an opinion. On an aggregate basis, 3 in 4 Indians foresee India that will be able to drive significant economic recovery from COVID within the next 1 year before it completes 75. This question in the survey received 11,081 responses.

58% citizens feel confident that India is well prepared to handle the 3rd COVID wave in the coming months

India’s healthcare crumbled to its weakest point during the 2nd wave of the COVID-19 that reached its peak in April and May. Given the early warnings by medical experts about the 3rd COVID wave in the coming months, several states across the country have already started to ramp up their healthcare infrastructure. Delhi, for instance, has passed a Graded Response Action Plan for a possible 3rd wave. The Maharashtra Government is also developing its health infrastructure, particularly focussed on paediatrics, oxygen beds, medical staff and medicines. Meanwhile, as cases surge in Kerala, the state Government has already announced a complete weekend lockdown. Per several scientific studies, a possible 3rd wave in India may reach a peak in October. Much of the impact of the 3rd wave will depend on several factors, including new variants, COVID appropriate behaviour, vaccine coverage, and upon how the states and central Governments contain and mitigate the spread both in urban and rural areas vis-a-vis administer COVID vaccine to its citizens, which are of vital importance.

The following question in the survey sought citizens’ confidence about India’s preparedness for the 3rd COVID wave in August-December 2021. In response, 26% of citizens said they are “highly confident”. 32% of citizens said they are “somewhat confident”, and 25% said they “have very little confidence”. 13% of citizens said they have “no confidence at all”, while 4% did not have an opinion. On an aggregate basis, 58% of citizens feel confident that India is well-prepared to handle the 3rd COVID wave in the coming months. This question in the survey received 8,880 responses.

This is a marked shift from March 2021 when LocalCircles had asked citizens about India’s ability to handle a 2nd COVID wave. Back then, only 41% had expressed confidence in India’s ability to effectively handle the 2nd COVID wave which turned out to be the sad reality as the 2nd COVID wave ripped through India infecting over 400,000 citizens on a daily basis per the official numbers. If the states put in a focused effort to upgrade health infrastructure and have the healthcare manpower, supplies and resources in place, India will likely be able to better handle the 3rd wave as and when it comes later this year.

The past year for Modi Government 2.0 has been about handling the COVID 1stst wave, from lockdown to unlocking, driving the economic recovery, developing and administering the COVID vaccine, and then handling the 2nd wave of the outbreak in addition to getting a grip on regular issues of unemployment, ease of doing business, fighting corruption, etc.

According to the findings of the survey, with only 12 months left before India completes 75, India is likely to make limited progress in areas of improving social stability, leveraging demographic dividends and creating jobs and entrepreneurship opportunities as well as reducing corruption. Similarly, given the economic situation, only a small percentage believes that growth and prosperity can be achieved for all within the next 1 year.

On the positive, given the way India was able to drive economic recovery from the 1st COVID wave, 3 in 4 Indians are confident that India is likely to see significant economic recovery from the impact of COVID within the next 1 year before India completes 75 years of its independence. Similarly, citizens also believe that India has learned several lessons from the experience of the brutal 2nd COVID wave and 58% of citizens now believe that it is well prepared to handle the 3rd wave of COVID if it were to come later this year.

People have expressed in discussions that if India is able to handle COVID effectively by paying attention to the dynamic situation on the ground, making timely data-based decisions and boosting health infrastructure and resources and vaccinate its population, it will again be well-positioned to be the fastest-growing economy of the world and the premier destination for investments, which can drive more opportunities and increase in earnings of people. Once some of this is in motion, it will have to bring back focus on the key social aspects outlined in this study of reducing corruption, improving communal harmony and driving equitable growth. For, in the long run, both social and economic prosperity will be key to a prosperous India.

Survey Demographics

This year’s survey received over 75,000 responses from citizens located in over 280 districts of the country. 68% respondents were men while 32% respondents were women. 43% respondents were from tier 1, 37% from tier 2 and 20% respondents were from tier 3, 4 and rural districts. The survey was conducted via LocalCircles platform and all participants are validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.